economists expect a decline for 2023 due to a drop in
incoming orders and a rise in cancellations. Inflation will
remain high, but no longer reach the level of 2022. The
labour market is predicted to develop robustly, with rising
wages.
Higher interest rates mean that central banks will continue
to maintain restrictive monetary policies. Benchmark interest
rates are expected to rise further. The Fed will likely adopt
smaller rate hikes of 0.25 percentage points up to a level of
5.0 percent. It enacted its first interest rate increase of
0.25 percentage points on 1 February 2023. One day later,
the ECB raised its main refinancing operations rate by
0.5 percentage points to 3.0 percent. In view of high inflation, a
further interest rate increase to 3.5 percent is expected in the
spring of 2023.
The ECB has announced that the asset purchase programme
(APP) portfolio will be reduced by about EUR 15 billion each
month from the beginning of March. This will be done by not
reinvesting all of the principal payments from maturing
securities. In the second half of the year, the ECB will decide
whether to further curtail the reinvestment of principal pay-
ments from maturing securities and thus to start reducing
the portfolio more rapidly.
On the foreign exchange market, the euro is expected to
trend in a slightly positive direction against the US dollar,
since the Fed has announced that interest rates will be raised
more slowly and the ECB is expected to raise them more
sharply. The British pound may again perform rather more
weakly against the euro given that already modest economic
prospects are being further impacted by the lasting effects of
Brexit. As far as the Swiss franc is concerned, we expect only
slight fluctuations in 2023 and a gentle decline in the
exchange rate against the euro.
Funding spreads for banks are likely to come under pressure
due to the faster repayment of TLTRO tenders and the ECB’s
curtailing of securities purchases and its portfolio reduction.
Over-liquidity on the money market should shrink considerably
in 2023 and could result in somewhat firmer market rates.
The covered bond markets are forecast to see brisk issuing
activity again, particularly because there will be repayments
of TLTRO tenders. Covered bonds, which were previously
funded in part via the ECB’s low-cost tender programme, will
thus increasingly be issued through public deals once more. It
is therefore possible that spreads will widen further. Demand
for covered bonds will also be further boosted by the CBPP 3
purchase programme, although to a lesser extent than in
previous years, as only maturing instruments will be rein-
vested by the ECB. New issues of benchmark covered bonds
denominated in euros are forecast to reach EUR 175 billion
for 2023.
Property markets and property financing markets
In 2023, higher interest rates and weaker economic growth
will once again shape the overall conditions on the property
markets and influence the behaviour of clients and investors.
The resulting uncertainties on the investment markets will be
reflected in pricing processes that remain difficult. Thus, the
transaction volume for both residential and commercial
properties is expected to be lower than in the previous year.
Transaction activity will not pick up until mid-2023 at the earli-
est. This is contingent on buyers as well as sellers being able to
calculate financing costs and margins more reliably again.
With investors focussing even more strongly on energy-
efficient buildings, price trends are expected to differ
depending on the quality of the property. This means that
price declines will mainly affect energy-intensive residential
and commercial properties.
The residential property markets in our target countries of
Germany, Switzerland and Austria continue to be character-
ised by scarcity of supply. This will lead to further substantial
prices rises on the rental housing markets. The situation will
be aggravated by a decline in new construction activity,
along with new regulatory requirements. Stricter minimum
requirements concerning equity and the debt service-to-in-
come ratio in the case of lending in Austria, as well as the
countercyclical capital buffer and the sectoral systemic risk
buffer for residential property financing which have been in
effect in Germany since February 2023, will make it more
difficult for many households to purchase property.
There is disagreement among experts with regard to the fur-
ther trend in purchase prices in the case of owner-occupied
housing and multi-family houses. A clear trend is not
expected to emerge until the second half of 2023 at the ear-
liest, meaning that even demand from institutional investors
is likely to remain modest until then.
In light of economic weaknesses compared to previous years,
assessments of the prospects on the commercial property
markets are somewhat more restrained on the whole. This
will also affect the office property market. Take-up, for
instance, is forecast to be somewhat lower for the first half
of 2023 compared to the previous year. In all the countries
considered here, this assessment excludes prime properties in
very good office locations, where it is assumed that rents will
remain stable or even rise. Away from these locations, high
vacancy rates are expected, which will increase the pressure
on rents. For institutional investors, office properties remain
the most attractive asset class.
27
Münchener Hypothekenbank
Annual Report 2022
1 Foreword 3 Annual statement
of accounts
4 Notes 5 Further information
2 Management report
RISK, OUTLOOK AND
OPPORTUNITIES REPORT